As part of an end of year review, I'm going to do a two part post where I review trends of the past year and predict technology moves coming in 2007.
First off, things that we saw in 2006.
Rising Tech
Last year we saw widespread adoption of AJAX on all manner of websites. And for the most part it has made those sites much nicer to use. If you don't already consider Ajax a mainstream web development technology, it will be in next year.
Last year saw continued interest in Ruby and Rails. It actually fueled a lot of other supporting technology development. I'm thinking of Python web frameworks, Grails, Capistrano, etc... I expect interest and use of Rails to continue in 2007.
Agile is now pretty mainstream as a development methodology. I'm not sure about current number, but I bet Agile methodologies will account for more than 70% of new projects next year. (ignoring projects where no methodology is used)
In java-land, OSGi got some important traction in 2006. I attribute that to Eclipses successful use of it as well as Spring's recommendation and supporting technology.
Stagnate or Declining Tech
WS-* services have sunk into disrepute due to complexity. I expect plain old XML over HTTP and REST services to fill in the gap where required.
Clearly C# and the .NET framework are the recommended development tools for the Windows platform. But I don't see any moves from non-windows developers onto .NET and C# and I don't expect that to change.
Java's situation is similar to C# in that it's not attracting new developers, but it's a bit worse off due to the size and complexity of the platform. (Part of that is just maturity.)
EJB 3.0 didn't reverse the large scale abandonment of J2EE by the development community. It's decent technology, but to little and to late. Minimal web/app servers running Spring hosted services are the new model.